Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems often
exhibit nonlinear and discontinuous responses to environmental forcings,
e.g., climate and disturbance, even when the forcings themselves are
continuous and gradual. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that future
changes in regional and global environments will not necessarily result
in smooth, linear changes in local ecosystems but, instead, we should
be prepared for surprises and unanticipated outcomes. There is ample
evidence to support this conclusion: Paleorecords document that community
shifts to past climatic change have been highly nonlinear; experimentalists
often find nonlinear responses of ecosystems to disturbance and rising
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2); landscapes
have known to have critical thresholds of fragmentation that affect
key ecological processes, such as the ability of natural enemies to
control pest outbreaks in agricultural systems and the balance between
native and exotic species; and there are increasing data to suggest
minimal threshold values of species biodiversity exist that, when surpassed,
negatively impact the ability of ecosystems to provide the essential
goods and services of importance to human populations. Notwithstanding
this evidence, I maintain that a great deal of ecological research continues
to employ 'linear thinking' and, not surprisingly, linear thinking is
also entrenched in the way policy-makers perceive environmental change
and ways to manage it, as illustrated by the common (and usually false)
assumption of the linear relationship between action and outcome. Given
that the socio-economic consequences of abrupt nonlinear changes in
terrestrial ecosystems are potentially more damaging if societies are
not prepared, it is obvious that linear thinking is both risky and unacceptable.
In this talk, I will first define what is meant by nonlinearity, describe
its origins in ecological systems, and provide several examples to illustrate
its unpredictable nature, drawn from studies of the effects of elevated
CO2 on plants and ecosystems, regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems,
and how climate change and disturbance may affect biodiversity. Second,
I consider whether current experimental and modeling approaches are
adequate to reduce uncertainty brought about by nonlinear behavior.
Third, I discuss the implications and importance for policy-makers to
adopt nonlinear thinking in their dealings with global change and terrestrial
ecosystems. Lastly, I describe a new initiative under the Global Change
and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) project as a contribution to efforts
of the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme (IGBP) to emphasize
research on ecosystem nonlinearity as a vital and challenging component
of global change science and which impacts on how we design experiments,
build models, and perceive ecosystem dynamics in a rapidly changing-and
unpredictable-world.