The Promise and Perils of Integrated Environmental Modeling

1:00-3:30pm Wednesday, June 30, 2004
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Fifth Floor Conference Room

The Woodrow Wilson Center is located near the Federal Triangle Metro Center.
Directions to the Center

Advanced computational technology, software programs written in objective languages, and dynamic data analysis methods can be used to integrate compartmentalized environmental models. Under a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is sponsoring a symposium on integrated environmental models and associated uncertainties. ABSTRACT

For those who can not attend in person, please use the call-in number: 877-931-2072 with passcode: 453752.

For background information on integrated modeling, please read the article
prepared by Dave Clarke:**DOWNLOAD BACKGROUND PAPER**

  1:00pm Welcome
David Rejeski, Woodrow Wilson Center
Jeff Morris, Office of Science Policy, US EPA

Reconciling Models with the Real Thing: Exploring What's in the Future
Bruce Beck, University of Georgia


Integrated Environmental Modeling: Model Uncertainty and Management Decisions

Igor Linkov, Cambridge Environmental, Inc.

Download Background Paper on Risk Analysis
Download Background Paper on Modeling Framework


EPA's Guidance for Environmental Models & Models Knowledge Base

Elsie Sunderland & Neil Stiber, US EPA


Opening the Black Box: How Can We Improve Model Transparency?
Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.

  2:45pm Integrated discussion
  3:30pm Adjourn
Featured Speakers
Elsie Sunderland, Environmental Scientist, Office of Science Policy, U.S. EPA
Dr. Elsie Sunderland is currently employed as an Environmental Scientist by the U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development's Office of Science Policy, where she primarily works with the Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling, a cross-Agency body. Dr. Sunderland's background is in the development of environmental fate and bioaccumulation models for contaminants in coastal ecosystems. She holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Toxicology.
Neil A. Stiber, Office of Research and Development, Office of Science Policy, U.S. EPA
Dr. Neil A. Stiber is an environmental scientist at the U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development, Office of Science Policy. Since joining the EPA in July 2003, he was worked with the Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling (CREM) and had a primary role in the development of the Models Knowledge Base. Prior to joining the EPA, he worked for several years as an consultant specializing in environmental risk assessment and site remediation. Dr. Stiber received his Ph.D. from the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. His research interests include techniques for using expert knowledge, environmental decision making, and Bayesian methods. Dr. Stiber can be contacted at (202) 564-1573 or
Bruce Beck, The Warnell School of Forest Resources, University of Georgia
Dr. Beck holds the Wheatley-Georgia Research Alliance Endowed Chair of Water Quality and Environmental Systems. He is also Visiting Professor and Senior Research Associate in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine in London. Beck holds a first degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Exeter (1970) and a PhD in Control Engineering from King's College, Cambridge (1973). His current research interests include environmental systems analysis, structural change and the identification of model structure, validation (evaluation) of models, watershed management, adaptive community learning, infrastructure requirements for sustainable cities, applications of process control in biological systems of wastewater treatment, and control in microbial ecosystems. Since taking up his appointment at the University of Georgia in 1993 he has commissioned the Environmental Process Control Laboratory, which forms part of a graduate program in Environmental Informatics and Control.
Max Henrion, CEO, Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.
Max Henrion is founder and CEO of Lumina Decision Systems, which offers decision modeling software, consulting, and training in decision analysis and modeling. He has thirty years experience in developing models and facilitating modeling teams, including several integrated environmental assessment models. He led the design of several software tools for modeling and decision support, including Analytica, and the Jeeves Advisor, a Web-based online consumer advisor offered by Ask Jeeves. Previously, he was Consulting Professor at Stanford, and Associate Professor at Carnegie Mellon in Engineering and Public Policy and Social and Decision Science. He was the founding President of the Association for Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence. He is the coauthor of a book on uncertainty in risk analysis and author of sixty articles in decision analysis, artificial intelligence, and public policy. He has a Ph.D. from the Heinz School at Carnegie Mellon University, Master of Design from the Royal College of Art, London, and M.A. from Cambridge University.

Igor Linkov, Senior Scientist, Cambridge Environmental, Inc.
Dr. Linkov is a Senior Scientist at Cambridge Environmental, Inc. He has more than 14 years of experience in performing state-of-the-art ecological and human health risk assessments and environmental investigations for contaminated sites in the U.S.A and worldwide. Dr. Linkov's skills include environmental risk assessment, study of contaminated sites, probabilistic modeling, project management, risk communication, litigation support, policy analysis, risk assessment for emerging threats, toxicology, and biostatistics. He is also developing software for environmental modeling, decision support and risk assessment. His current research interests include decision analysis, probabilistic modeling, and risk assessment as well as the development of risk-based approaches to environmental decision-making. Prior to joining Cambridge Environmental, Dr. Linkov was a Senior Risk Assessor and Team Leader at ICF Consulting, where he conducted environmental risk assessments in support of government and commercial clients. He also worked for Arthur D. Little and Menzie-Cura & Associates. At Harvard University, Dr. Linkov researched carcinogenic potencies of chemicals for risk-based regulatory policies and applied Bayesian updating methodology to environmental modeling. Dr. Linkov chairs the Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Group for the Society for Risk Analysis and is president-elect of its New England Chapter. He serves as a scientific advisor to the Toxic Use Reduction Institute, a position that requires nomination by the Governor of Massachusetts. He has MS in Physics and Mathematics from St. Petersburg Technical University (Russia), MS equivalent in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University and PhD in Environmental and Occupational Health from the University of Pittsburgh.